Asian currency market outlook august 18 2011

Indonesia stock info - Asian currency market outlook august 18 2011 ; Another mixed session on Wall Street. US equities started the day firmer on better than expected earnings reports (including heavy weights, Target, Staples and A&F). But the rally was wiped out as Dell forecasted weaker sales, Fed officials warned against too much stimulus and investors held on concerns over the eurozone debt crisis. Fed's Plosser said the FOMC will likely need to raise rates before mid 2013. The DJIA closed +0.04%, S&P +0.09% whilst the NASDAQ ended in the red (-0.47%). Gold advanced for the second day, to close at $1791.25.

Over in Asia, the high level Chinese delegates, led by China's Vice Premier Li Keqiang, have pledged to boost Hong Kong's role as an offshore CNY centre during a visit to the city. USD/Asians are likely to enter into consolidation today with a slight downward bias on account of a flattish US/EU stock market performance and a firmer EUR/USD vs late Asian trade yesterday. On the data front, Hong Kong July unemployment and Taiwan Q2 GDP (F) are due at 08:30 GMT.

- EUR/USD slipped early in eurozone trading as sellers pushed prices from 1.4400 to 1.4340-45, where some interesting buyers appeared. The immediate reaction was a jump back up to 1.4400. From there, the equity market led the way to EUR/USD highs of 1.4517. Summertime trading struck and equities dropped, pulling support for EUR/USD as prices consolidated near 1.4450 into the NY close.

- USD/JPY was confined to a range from 76.38 up to 76.83. Safe haven bids keep prices low, but fear of intervention keep prices from falling further. From a safe haven perspective, investors are not moving from CHF to JPY despite some efforts by the Swiss government to reduce the value of CHF. While government initiatives do not impress the market, the SNB could still have significant impact with a number of initiatives available to them.

- GBP/USD could have been hit hard after dovish BoE minutes and disappointing employment news, but the pull from the advancing EUR/USD ensured prices were to move higher. By the end of the day, GBP outpaced EUR considerably in markets that lacked breadth and depth.

NORTH ASIA

USD/CNY: 1Y NDF strengthened from 6.2720 to 6.2770 o/n. NDFs, including spot, are likely to enter consolidation today with a slight downward bias on a softer USD tone and a flattish overnight US/EU stock market performance. For the 1Y NDfF, next support and resistance seen at 6.2695 and 6.2863 respectively.

USD/KRW: High vols seen on o/n NDF trading; pair closed almost flat at 1070 vs 1072 open, reinforcing our views of consolidation. May edge toward the 1067.8 support in the coming session.

USD/HKD: Dollar index weakened on Wednesday, which has not been fully yet reflected in USD/HKD. Expect limited downside movement for the pair on a cautious equity market; pair to stay above 7.7872 support. Hong Kong July unemployment due at 08:30 GMT (4CAST: 3.6%).

USD/TWD: Low vols seen on o/n NDF; pair marginally lower at 28.72 from 28.75 at open. Spot may still stay within the 28.905 and 29.056 range for now. Taiwan Q2 GDP (F) due at 08:30 GMT.

SOUTHEAST ASIA

USD/SGD: Pair has been in a consolidation phase for the past two days, which may well continue into today's session. Pair is expected to hover between the 1.2018 - 1.2120 range in the near-term.

USD/MYR: Moderate vols on o/n NDF front; pair closed lower at 2.9760 - 2.9680, suggesting a downside movement today. However, size may be limited as the pair is currently in a consolidation mode. May test the 2.9650 support today.

USD/IDR: O/n NDF closed lower at 8515 from 8258. Onshore markets return from Independence Day and pair may see some downside movement in the coming session. Eye on the 8510 support, followed by 8470.

USD/THB: Pair was still seen consolidating o/n; and will likely remain the case today barring any major events. Pair seen bouncing between the 29.800-29.990 range for now .

USD/PHP: Pair is likely to stay more or less steady in 42.270-42.650 range for today. NDF was flat overnight as well.

USD/INR: NDFs were flat in o/n trading, suggesting not much movement for the pair today, though it may head higher given its upward bias. Likely to stay in the 45.300-45.540 range for now.


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