According to Bloomberg surveys, the consensus forecast for NFP is +68K (prior +117K) with a range of estimates from +160K to -10K; private payrolls are expected to change by +95K (prior +154K), with a range of +156K to +5K, and the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 9.1%. Jobs estimates have been lowered following the weaker ADP employment report (+91K vs. exp. +100K and prior +109K) and we think the risks are that the data disappoints even those reduced forecasts.
In any case, interim data suggests to us that US job creation remains weak and well below levels needed to see a meaningful drop in the unemployment rate. As such, we think a private payrolls change of between +70 and +120 is unlikely to produce a sustained market reaction one way or the other.
A private payrolls change below that range, however, could see a more significant risk-averse reaction, potentially sending stocks, commodities and FX risk assets lower, and paradoxically the USD higher, we think. That noted, given the amount of pessimism in markets of late, we also think a private payroll number above that range could see a sharp, if brief, rally in risk assets. At the end of the day, however, we would look for a more cautious tone to prevail (risk off) given our generally downbeat view on the US and global economic outlook.
Global Market Outlook sept 2 2011
UK Stocks market outlook Friday Sept 2 2011
Britain's FTSE 100 index was seen opening down 91-92 points, or 1.7 percent, on Friday, according to financial bookmakers, Read More
Asian stock market down september 2 2011
Asian stock markets mostly fell Friday after a decline on Wall Street and ahead of the release of closely watched U.S. employment figures. Read More
African Markets outlook september 2 2011
The following company announcements, scheduled economicindicators, debt and currency market moves and political events may affect African markets on Read more
Market Outlook: First off, we would note that the US Labor Day holiday follows on Monday, so we would expect market action to subside following the London/European close, meaning lower liquidity/higher volatility may be evident after noon EDT. With that in mind, we would also note US monthly jobs reports are known for heightened short-term volatility immediately following their release and we expect tomorrow’s to be no exception.
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